In what may seem as negative growth marker, Sikkim’s
fertility rate has plummeted to a historic low of 1.1, making it one of the
lowest in the world. This drastic decline, as per the National Family Health
Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, places Sikkim alongside nations struggling with severe
demographic challenges. With a total fertility rate (TFR) far below the
replacement level of 2.1, the state is on the precipice of an aging crisis that
could strain its workforce, economy, and social welfare systems.
Over the years, Sikkim’s TFR has sharply fallen from 2.0
in 2005-06 to 1.2 in 2015-16, finally reaching the alarming 1.1 recorded today.
Factors contributing to this decline include rising contraceptive use, delayed
marriages, and economic insecurities. Alarmingly, rural Sikkim has witnessed
even steeper declines due to high sterilization rates, particularly among women
with little or no formal education. If this trend persists, Sikkim could face
severe economic stagnation, labour shortages, and a burgeoning elderly
population dependent on shrinking younger generations.
The government has recognized the urgency of this issue,
with Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang earlier announcing a range of incentives
to encourage childbirth. Provisions include childcare units in government
offices, financial incentives for government employees who conceive multiple
times, and monetary assistance for non-working women. Additionally, under the
Vatsalya Scheme, up to ?3 lakh has been allocated for IVF treatment, benefiting
at least 38 women so far. The state has also extended maternity leave to 365
days for temporary employees, a commendable move toward easing the burdens of
working mothers.
However, these measures, while progressive, may not be
sufficient to reverse the declining trend. Sikkim must implement a holistic
policy framework that goes beyond financial incentives. Affordable housing,
robust healthcare, improved work-life balance policies, and enhanced childcare
infrastructure are crucial to making parenthood a viable choice. Additionally,
awareness campaigns targeting the socio-cultural perception of childbirth and
family planning are necessary to counteract the prevailing reluctance toward
larger families.
The dangers of sustained low fertility cannot be
overstated. With fewer young workers entering the labour force, economic
productivity will take a hit, leading to lower income levels and an increased
dependency ratio. Moreover, a declining population risks exacerbating gender
imbalances and increasing healthcare burdens due to aging-related diseases. As
seen in countries like South Korea and Japan, once low fertility becomes
entrenched, reversing it is an uphill battle.
Sikkim must act swiftly and decisively. Encouraging
childbirth should not be limited to financial rewards but should encompass
comprehensive socio-economic reforms. Only a multifaceted approach can ensure
that Sikkim’s demographic decline is stemmed before it becomes irreversible,
safeguarding the state’s long-term prosperity and stability.
