The return of Donald Trump to the White
House in 2024 could mark the beginning of a new era for U.S. foreign policy in
South Asia. South Asia holds strategic significance for both global stability
and American interests. Trump’s second term is expected to shape U.S. relations
with major South Asian countries. However, this approach will likely develop
based on his "America First" principle, his relations with China, and
broader geopolitical trends.
This article provides a closer look at how
American foreign policy in South Asia might unfold under Trump’s leadership
during his second term.
1. Strengthening Strategic Partnerships:
India as a Key Ally
One of the most notable aspects of U.S.
foreign policy in South Asia during Trump’s first term was the deepening
relationship with India. As the world’s largest democracy and an emerging
economic and military power, India aligns with American strategic interests.
With China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s second term may see
an even stronger relationship with India.
Trump has already developed a close
personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, likely translating
into continued cooperation in defense, trade, and regional security. Trump may
prioritize increasing military sales to India, expanding joint military
exercises, and ensuring that India remains a central player in the U.S.-led
Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s influence. Growth in U.S.-India
cooperation in areas like cybersecurity, technology, and counterterrorism is
anticipated, designed within a broader framework to balance China’s growing
regional dominance.
Additionally, Trump’s pro-trade rhetoric
may boost trade and investment between the U.S. and India. The U.S. could press
for greater access to India’s emerging markets, while encouraging India to open
sectors like defense, technology, and energy to American companies.
2. A Tougher Stance on Pakistan:
Counterterrorism and Defense Aid
Trump’s first term was marked by
frustration with Pakistan, particularly regarding its alleged support for
terrorist groups like the Taliban and Haqqani network. His second term could
adopt an even more transactional approach toward Pakistan. Trump’s "America
First" philosophy may direct a stricter stance toward Pakistan, as the
U.S. will expect Islamabad to take concrete steps in combating terrorism and
promoting regional stability.
The U.S. may continue to reduce military
aid to Pakistan, a trend that began during Trump’s first term. This reduction
will likely persist if Pakistan fails to act decisively against terrorist
groups that threaten Afghan and Indian interests. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s
strategic importance for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan and its
role in broader regional security could ensure some degree of cooperation with
Washington.
Trump may attempt to exert pressure on
Pakistan through multilateral channels, leveraging U.S. influence within
international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Washington
could insist on terms that restrict Pakistan’s access to international loans
and financial aid unless it makes significant progress in counterterrorism
cooperation.
3. Afghanistan: Persistent Pressure for a
“Deal”
Afghanistan remains a critical issue in
South Asia, and Trump’s second term will likely continue his "America
First" policy in this region. While Trump previously sought to withdraw
U.S. troops from Afghanistan, he also emphasized reaching an agreement with the
Taliban, which may remain a focal point in his second term. Trump is expected
to push for a political solution that minimizes U.S. military involvement. This
may involve maintaining pressure on the Taliban and other groups to uphold commitments
made during the Doha Agreement of 2020.
However, Trump’s diplomatic style—often
direct and sometimes unpredictable—could lead to shifts in U.S. military and
aid policy based on the evolving situation in Afghanistan. The U.S. might
maintain a minimal military presence to counter terrorist groups like ISIS-K,
while emphasizing reduced U.S. presence and increased reliance on regional
partners, including India and neighboring Central Asian republics, for
stability.
4. China’s Influence: A New Balancing
Effort in South Asia
Trump’s second presidency could place South
Asia at the crossroads of U.S.-China rivalry. With Beijing advancing its Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, particularly through large-scale
infrastructure projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Trump may intensify efforts
to limit China’s influence by offering South Asian countries alternative
investment and trade opportunities.
The U.S. could strengthen partnerships with
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, countries that find themselves
increasingly drawn into China’s orbit through debt-driven projects. The Trump
administration might counter these developments by providing financial aid,
trade deals, and investments aimed at preventing these countries from becoming
overly reliant on China. For example, U.S. investments in alternative
infrastructure projects, such as energy and transport links, could gain
prominence.
Trump may also push for greater
transparency in Chinese investments in South Asia, especially where strategic
assets like ports are involved. His administration could encourage South Asian
countries to remain cautious about Chinese loans and infrastructure projects
that risk saddling them with unsustainable debt.
5. Regional Tensions: The India-Pakistan
Question
The longstanding rivalry between India and
Pakistan will remain a challenge for U.S. policy in South Asia. While Trump may
emphasize India’s importance concerning China, his administration’s approach to
Pakistan could create regional tensions, especially given the ongoing conflict
over Kashmir. Trump has often expressed frustration over the Kashmir issue but
has refrained from extensive involvement in mediation between the two
nuclear-armed neighbors.
In his second term, Trump might adopt a
more hands-off approach toward both countries. However, any
escalation—particularly in the context of cross-border violence or military
skirmishes—could force the U.S. to intervene.
Trump’s strategic calculus may prioritize
counterterrorism and stability in Afghanistan over direct intervention in
India-Pakistan tensions, though the U.S. will remain concerned about the risk
of nuclear escalation in the region.
6. Environmental Policy and Climate Change
Trump has previously downplayed the urgency
of climate change, but his second term could bring some shifts in how the U.S.
engages with South Asia on environmental issues. Countries like India and
Bangladesh face significant climate-related challenges, including rising sea
levels, extreme weather events, and water scarcity. Trump may adopt a more
practical, if not comprehensive, approach to U.S. climate policy in this
region.
While Trump may not prioritize global
climate agreements, he could emphasize market-driven solutions to address
regional environmental concerns. The U.S. could work bilaterally with countries
like India to promote clean energy options, including nuclear or renewable
energy, through private investment and technology transfers. Additionally,
U.S.-led initiatives to improve disaster resilience and help South Asian
nations adapt to changing climate conditions could gain momentum, though the
primary focus may remain on economic growth and energy security.
7. A More Fragmented South Asia: Diverging
Paths for Regional Cooperation
During Trump’s second term, U.S. foreign
policy in South Asia could lead to more fragmented regional dynamics. As
countries in the region try to balance relations with both the U.S. and China,
increased competition for influence between the two superpowers in South Asia
may be expected.
Countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and
Bangladesh may find themselves caught between these two giants, struggling to
maintain autonomy while reaping economic opportunities from both the U.S. and
China. Trump’s transactional foreign policy may push these countries to adopt
more strategic approaches to diplomacy, attempting to leverage competition
between the U.S. and China for economic and security gains.
Conclusion
Trump’s second term will continue to
prioritize American interests in South Asia, as the region remains a key
battleground in the broader U.S.-China rivalry. His "America First"
approach will influence how the U.S. engages with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and other South Asian countries, with an emphasis on defense partnerships,
trade deals, and counterterrorism. China’s expanding influence in the region
presents both opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy, leading to a period
of strategic rebalancing as South Asia adapts to the complexities of a more
transactional and assertive U.S. under Trump’s leadership.
