The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 could mark the beginning of a new era for U.S. foreign policy in South Asia. South Asia holds strategic significance for both global stability and American interests. Trump’s second term is expected to shape U.S. relations with major South Asian countries. However, this approach will likely develop based on his "America First" principle, his relations with China, and broader geopolitical trends.
This article provides a closer look at how American foreign policy in South Asia might unfold under Trump’s leadership during his second term.
1. Strengthening Strategic Partnerships: India as a Key Ally
One of the most notable aspects of U.S. foreign policy in South Asia during Trump’s first term was the deepening relationship with India. As the world’s largest democracy and an emerging economic and military power, India aligns with American strategic interests. With China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s second term may see an even stronger relationship with India.
Trump has already developed a close personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, likely translating into continued cooperation in defense, trade, and regional security. Trump may prioritize increasing military sales to India, expanding joint military exercises, and ensuring that India remains a central player in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s influence. Growth in U.S.-India cooperation in areas like cybersecurity, technology, and counterterrorism is anticipated, designed within a broader framework to balance China’s growing regional dominance.
Additionally, Trump’s pro-trade rhetoric may boost trade and investment between the U.S. and India. The U.S. could press for greater access to India’s emerging markets, while encouraging India to open sectors like defense, technology, and energy to American companies.
2. A Tougher Stance on Pakistan: Counterterrorism and Defense Aid
Trump’s first term was marked by frustration with Pakistan, particularly regarding its alleged support for terrorist groups like the Taliban and Haqqani network. His second term could adopt an even more transactional approach toward Pakistan. Trump’s "America First" philosophy may direct a stricter stance toward Pakistan, as the U.S. will expect Islamabad to take concrete steps in combating terrorism and promoting regional stability.
The U.S. may continue to reduce military aid to Pakistan, a trend that began during Trump’s first term. This reduction will likely persist if Pakistan fails to act decisively against terrorist groups that threaten Afghan and Indian interests. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s strategic importance for U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan and its role in broader regional security could ensure some degree of cooperation with Washington.
Trump may attempt to exert pressure on Pakistan through multilateral channels, leveraging U.S. influence within international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Washington could insist on terms that restrict Pakistan’s access to international loans and financial aid unless it makes significant progress in counterterrorism cooperation.
3. Afghanistan: Persistent Pressure for a “Deal”
Afghanistan remains a critical issue in South Asia, and Trump’s second term will likely continue his "America First" policy in this region. While Trump previously sought to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan, he also emphasized reaching an agreement with the Taliban, which may remain a focal point in his second term. Trump is expected to push for a political solution that minimizes U.S. military involvement. This may involve maintaining pressure on the Taliban and other groups to uphold commitments made during the Doha Agreement of 2020.
However, Trump’s diplomatic style—often direct and sometimes unpredictable—could lead to shifts in U.S. military and aid policy based on the evolving situation in Afghanistan. The U.S. might maintain a minimal military presence to counter terrorist groups like ISIS-K, while emphasizing reduced U.S. presence and increased reliance on regional partners, including India and neighboring Central Asian republics, for stability.
4. China’s Influence: A New Balancing Effort in South Asia
Trump’s second presidency could place South Asia at the crossroads of U.S.-China rivalry. With Beijing advancing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, particularly through large-scale infrastructure projects in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Trump may intensify efforts to limit China’s influence by offering South Asian countries alternative investment and trade opportunities.
The U.S. could strengthen partnerships with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, countries that find themselves increasingly drawn into China’s orbit through debt-driven projects. The Trump administration might counter these developments by providing financial aid, trade deals, and investments aimed at preventing these countries from becoming overly reliant on China. For example, U.S. investments in alternative infrastructure projects, such as energy and transport links, could gain prominence.
Trump may also push for greater transparency in Chinese investments in South Asia, especially where strategic assets like ports are involved. His administration could encourage South Asian countries to remain cautious about Chinese loans and infrastructure projects that risk saddling them with unsustainable debt.
5. Regional Tensions: The India-Pakistan Question
The longstanding rivalry between India and Pakistan will remain a challenge for U.S. policy in South Asia. While Trump may emphasize India’s importance concerning China, his administration’s approach to Pakistan could create regional tensions, especially given the ongoing conflict over Kashmir. Trump has often expressed frustration over the Kashmir issue but has refrained from extensive involvement in mediation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
In his second term, Trump might adopt a more hands-off approach toward both countries. However, any escalation—particularly in the context of cross-border violence or military skirmishes—could force the U.S. to intervene.
Trump’s strategic calculus may prioritize counterterrorism and stability in Afghanistan over direct intervention in India-Pakistan tensions, though the U.S. will remain concerned about the risk of nuclear escalation in the region.
6. Environmental Policy and Climate Change
Trump has previously downplayed the urgency of climate change, but his second term could bring some shifts in how the U.S. engages with South Asia on environmental issues. Countries like India and Bangladesh face significant climate-related challenges, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and water scarcity. Trump may adopt a more practical, if not comprehensive, approach to U.S. climate policy in this region.
While Trump may not prioritize global climate agreements, he could emphasize market-driven solutions to address regional environmental concerns. The U.S. could work bilaterally with countries like India to promote clean energy options, including nuclear or renewable energy, through private investment and technology transfers. Additionally, U.S.-led initiatives to improve disaster resilience and help South Asian nations adapt to changing climate conditions could gain momentum, though the primary focus may remain on economic growth and energy security.
7. A More Fragmented South Asia: Diverging Paths for Regional Cooperation
During Trump’s second term, U.S. foreign policy in South Asia could lead to more fragmented regional dynamics. As countries in the region try to balance relations with both the U.S. and China, increased competition for influence between the two superpowers in South Asia may be expected.
Countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh may find themselves caught between these two giants, struggling to maintain autonomy while reaping economic opportunities from both the U.S. and China. Trump’s transactional foreign policy may push these countries to adopt more strategic approaches to diplomacy, attempting to leverage competition between the U.S. and China for economic and security gains.
Conclusion
Trump’s second term will continue to prioritize American interests in South Asia, as the region remains a key battleground in the broader U.S.-China rivalry. His "America First" approach will influence how the U.S. engages with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other South Asian countries, with an emphasis on defense partnerships, trade deals, and counterterrorism. China’s expanding influence in the region presents both opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy, leading to a period of strategic rebalancing as South Asia adapts to the complexities of a more transactional and assertive U.S. under Trump’s leadership.