Atal Bihari Vajpayee, former PM was right in saying 'you can
change your friends but not neighbours'. It was true during his life time and
cannot be negated even now.
Gradually India's neighbours are being cajoled to display
latent or manifest hostility towards it. Latest neighbour being Bangladesh, a
country carved out of Pakistan with Indian support. Erstwhile East Pakistan
became Bangladesh because West Pakistan did not allow Awami League to form
government in East Pakistan, despite their win in all the seats. East
Pakistanis rebelled against West
Pakistan Army. They were led by Mukti Vahini, trained by BSF and Indian Army. Large
scale migration of people into India was also witnessed, compelling India to
impose a Refugee tax.
Bangladesh is a low lying deltaic country having 310 rivers
in an area of 147,570 Sq.kms. Of a total population of 170 millions, 90.4 % are
Muslims, 8.2 % are Hindus( 28% in 1971), 0.7 % Buddhists and 0.6 % are
Christians. One million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar staying in Coxbazar
District for seven years have increased the burden of country.
Regime Changes Frequent
Bangladeshis were heaving a sigh of relief after getting
liberated from Pakistan. But peace and amity proved a short lived affair.
Before Bangbandhu Mujibur Rahman could streamline the country, he was
assassinated alongwith family members & close associates. Instead of
democratic set up, the country had Army rule atleast thrice. It had 13
Presidents and 10 Prime Ministers thus far. Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh National
Party became Prime Minister twice while last P.M. Sheikh Hasina of Awami League
had this distinction thrice
Protest of May-July, 2024
Current round of protests in Bangladesh sprung from
resentment over a quota system that saw 56 % of government jobs reserved for
various group's including 30% for descendants
of freedom fighters. Protest got accelerated in June '24 in response to Supreme
Court of Bangladesh reinstating a 30% quota, thus reversing decision of
government in response to the 2018 Bangladesh quota reform movement.
Main Reasons
Religious polarisation has taken place in the country
leading to political instability. Side by side, rise in unemployment and prices
angered the common man. Thus protests against quota system in government jobs,
in no time, evolved into anti-government demonstrations. Both Police and Army
appeared reluctant to enforce law and order. Hindus were a soft target, so,
violence against them intensified.
It has been also observed that Hasina government was harsh
in crushing the students. Also it was gathered that key issues -education,
health and employment were ignored by her government. Opposition parties took
full advantage of resentment factor which led to downfall of Hasina Government
in just 45 minutes on 5th August. She had no option but to seek refuge in
India.
Impact On Both Countries
India always had close geographic and economic ties with
Bangladesh.
It is not that only Bangladesh is going to suffer in the
changed political situation. Immediate impact over curtailment of exports has
already happened especially in Garment and textile sector which not only
contributed to 85 % of exports of Bangladesh but Indians too are suffering as
25% of these units are owned by them.
Also bi-lateral trade between two countries is bound to be
affected as Bangladesh was largest trade partner of India in the sub continent.
Transport Sector
Transport sector in India has already suffered badly as
Bangladesh was a huge market for Indian goods. Prior to unrest, about one
thousand trucks would go to Bangladesh daily as opposed to 125 trucks from
Nepal. More than 1300 trucks from India are reportedly stranded in Bangladesh.
Negative fallout of it is bound to be seen on Siliguri, Guwahati and Kolkata
markets.
Road and Rail corridor
Road and Rail corridor to and from North East through
Bangladesh shall have a setback as distances had reduced considerably as a
result of rapid strides made during the Hasina regime. Investment by India for
creating and improving infra structure in Bangladesh was also huge.
Security Matters
There is also going to be loss of a key partner for India
specifically in regard to suppressing terrorism in India. Useful intelligence
about Islamic and Assam terrorists may not be shared. Security concerns of
India may also increase. In the post-5th August situation, people of Bangladesh
think India as an ally of Hasina, hence, it may further strain relations with
India.
USA Factor
Policy of USA towards Bangladesh is also likely to change. While
outgoing President Joe Biden refrained from making comment on changed situation
in Bangladesh, President elect Donald Trump has expressed concern and
sympathies with Hindus in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was also quick in conveying
congratulations to him upon his victory.
Issue of Hindus
It’s going to be a risky situation for Hindus in Bangladesh.
In the event of escalation in Islamist extremism, Hindus will be further
threatened. Already many Hindu temples have been attacked and Hindus have faced
over two thousand attacks since 4th August.Durga Puja celebrations recently
were also a low key affair.
To add further insult Bangladesh's Attorney General has
advocated for constitutional changes including removal of term secular, given
that 90 % of country's population comprised of Muslims.
Recent Developments
On 10th November Bangladesh yet again became tense as a
planned protest rally by Awami League in Dhaka was thwarted. It was learnt that
activists of Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) aggressively hunted
for Sheikh Hasina supporters. Also activists of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami party filled up much of space
in Dhaka streets. Awami League stated that many of their supporters were
detained.
Bangladesh Interim government headed by Mohammad Yunus,
Nobel laureate and Senior Adviser, is going to seek assistance of Interpol to
repatriate Sheikh Hasina and other' fugitives' to face trial for alleged crimes against humanity. Hasina and
her party leaders face accusations of ordering brutal suppression of the ADSM
resulting in several casualties in June and July 2024. As per Md.Yunus, 753
persons were killed and thousands injured in protests. These were considered
crimes against humanity, thus a genocide. Over 60 complains have been filed
against Hasina and her party leaders with the International Crimes
Tribunal(ICT).Tribunal was incidentally created by Sheikh Hasina in 2010 and
following its judgements, six leaders of Jamaat -e - Islami and BNP were
executed.
After departure of Sheikh Hasina,its a fluid political
situation in Bangladesh. Return of radical Islamist forces, such as,
Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP are already threatening country's secular governance
system. Further rise in Islamic extremism will increase threat quotient of
Hindu community.
CONCLUSION
Bangladesh is in bad shape both from polity and economy
points of view as also threats to its social fabric. No longer its GDP is
growing at a rate of 6%. Once thriving garment industry had setbacks in the
last five months leading to disruption in export flow.
As such, 2024 has been a year of decline for readymade
garments especially to U.S. Global fashion brands - H&M, Zara and Decathlon
are shifting orders away from Bangladesh. Issues like non payment of regular
wages and over time have emerged. As 183 garment factories have been closed, it’s
a gain situation for Indian garment producers.
On international front, it is being felt that China may
increase its influence over Bangladesh by offering lucrative deals to the new
interim regime, similar to what it has given in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and
Maldives.
India, so far, is maintaining a cautious approach, closely
monitoring the situation in Bangladesh while adopting a wait and watch
strategy. India, at the same time, should bolster existing security measures along 4,156 kms long border
with Bangladesh as also in locations with significant Bangladeshi expatriate
population to address potential spillover effects. Also India needs to closely
monitor both China and Pakistan who could exploit present vulnerable situation
in Bangladesh.
(Views are personal. Email: alok.secyskm@gmail.com)
