The burning topic of Global Warming (GW) keeps surfacing time and again and rightly so. James Hansen, the renowned NASA Climatologist had announced it before the U.S. Congress in 1988.He had specifically indicated that GW was underway.
But in a new analysis published by him and others, they have stated that climate of Earth was now more sensitive to rising Green house emissions than previously believed. Hence, it was impossible to hold on to long term GW to 2 degree Centigrade per year, thefallback target of Paris Climate Accord.
AEROSOL POLLUTION ON THE RISE
Further, they have argued that decline in recent times in sunlight-blocking Aerosol pollution from the shipping industry is compounding the GW crisis very much.They have reiterated that enhanced warming of Earth was now guaranteed in view of tremendous amount of Green house gases pumped into its atmosphere by burning of Fossil fuel.
As a result, temperatures will stay at or above 1.5 degree in the coming years. Thus Coral Reefs may be devastated and more storms would take place prior to rising of temperature to 2 degree Celcius. Polar ice will melt and level of sea will also rise by several metres Virtually, there will be point of no return.
PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD
It may be recalled that during the landmark Paris Climate Accord of 2015, member countries had agreed to try to hold, end of century warning to 1.5 degree Centigrade temperature. But it is a known fact that this target has already been breached during the last two years as per Climate Monitoring System of the European Union.
COP 29
Further, during recently concluded COP 29 at Baku in Azerbaijan, in which India also participated, by understanding the importance of GW and Climate Change, the Conference agreed on plans for finance to mitigate the effects of Climate Change and help the developing countries in their transition to more sustainable energy sources. India participated actively but rejected the decision of COP as it did not, somehow, reflect the priorities of Global South.
It was decided to mobilise at least 300 billion Dollars annually for this purpose. The World Bank decided to mobilise adaptation and mitigation measures. World Bank and European Investment Bank also pledged to raise climate related lending to120 Billion Dollars annually for low and middle income economies. Asian Development Bank too pledged some amount.
Further, economic resources were to be mobilised to tackle challenges emanating from emissions,(mostly automobile) and disasters caused by climate change.
IMPACT OF GW
Once world temperature rises by 2 degree, tremendous impact is bound to be seen on Ice Sheets, Glaciers,Snow, Sea Ice and Permafrost.
Apart from GW, GLOBAL COOLING (GC), accompanied by unexpected rainfall is also being experienced in North India but cooling phases are generally short lived. Weather fluctuates rapidly in this spell .Sometimes temperature rises, at times, the sky becomes cloudy, making people feel cold. This February too weather will change from February 9 with the possibility of rain and fog, which is otherwise unusual for this time of the year.
As GC is also having temporary effect, this may have to be researched comprehensively.
SIKKIM THREATENED
South Lhonak , a glacial - moraine- damned lake located at an altitude of 5200 metres(17,100 feet) in North West Sikkim is one of the fastest expanding and potentially dangerous lakes susceptible to glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Formed due to melting of Lhonak Glacier, it was identified in 1977. Between that time and 2008, due to GW, the surface area of lake registered a rise by 81.1 hectares. Earlier its area was 1.98 kms x .45 kms with a depth of 79.24 metres.
On 4th October, 2023, owing to an outburst accompanied by heavy rains, the swollen lake breached its embankment and triggered a massive flood in the very basin of Teesta river. Overflow of river water reached the dam of Teesta Stage III hydel project at Chungthang at midnight on intervening night of 4th and 5th October and destroyed the dam in minutes. Efforts were made to open the gates upon getting a communication but of no avail. As this is a run of river project, damage was still on lower side.
UNTHINKABLE DAMAGE
Water level downstream of Teesta rose upto 20 feet, resulting into widespread damage and as many as 15 bridges were swept away. It flooded parts of Chungthang, Dikchu, Singtam, Rangpo and Melli in Sikkim, Teesta Bazar and Sevoke in Kalimpong District, Jalpaiguri and Coochbehar Districts in West Bengal and some areas of Bangladesh. Forty persons were killed, twenty two were injured and seventy two were missing(all declared dead later, except one).Widespread property ,trees and livestock were drifted away at a supersonic speed. Three thousand stranded tourists had to be evacuated, batch by batch. It was deadliest flood after 1968 mega floods when a staggering figure of one thousand persons had lost their lives.
IN RETROSPECT
This author feels very upset over the gigantic nature of episode. In my capacity as Principal Secretary, S & T and Climate Change and later as Chief Secretary of the State, I had drawn the attention several times, of State Government as also Ministry of Forest, Environment & Climate Change, GoI towards imminent danger to be posed by expansion of South Lhonak lake. But it seems, requisite action was not taken in time. Based on my experience, I can say that there is no guarantee that episode will not be repeated.
TAILPIECE
Are we ready for such irreversible losses? We need to think, plan and initiate action on top most priority.
