The country’s monsoon season highlights a
critical issue: despite improved forecasting accuracy, the nation remains
unprepared to manage the challenges brought on by excessive and unpredictable
rainfall. While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported an 8%
surplus in rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season, regional disparities and
the devastating impact of these rains have once again exposed systemic failures
in disaster management and infrastructure planning.
The east and northeast regions, despite
facing a 14% rainfall deficit, were ravaged by severe floods and landslides,
mirroring the catastrophic weather patterns seen in previous years. In
particular, the states of Sikkim and North Bengal continue to bear the brunt of
the retreating monsoon, with ongoing floods and landslides that have not only
disrupted daily life but also caused extensive damage to infrastructure. These
areas have become increasingly vulnerable, as erratic rainfall patterns,
worsened by climate change, lead to repeated destruction with little respite or
effective long-term solutions.
Meanwhile, Central India received 19% more
rainfall than average, and the southern peninsular region also experienced
significant excess. This uneven distribution of rainfall is not a new
phenomenon, but the inability to mitigate its impacts is alarming. Flooding in
Bihar and parts of Nepal, exacerbated by breaches in multiple river barrages,
has submerged vast stretches of farmland. The kharif crop harvest has been
disrupted, further straining India's agricultural sector, which remains heavily
dependent on the monsoon.
The IMD's success in predicting the
season's overall rainfall surplus is commendable. However, accurate forecasting
must be paired with robust preparedness strategies, particularly in flood-prone
and ecologically fragile areas. The northeast monsoon, which is expected to
bring above-normal rainfall to parts of southern India, is another looming
concern. Despite its lesser contribution to India's total annual rainfall, the
northeast monsoon can still wreak havoc, especially in urban areas prone to
flooding, such as Chennai.
One of the key issues that continue to
plague India's disaster management efforts is the reactive nature of its
response. Year after year, the country grapples with floods, landslides, and
crop losses, but there is little evidence of proactive planning to minimize
these impacts. Urban areas, in particular, are becoming increasingly vulnerable
due to poor drainage systems, unplanned construction, and the lack of green
spaces to absorb excess water. The ongoing debate around climate change adds
another layer of complexity, with global models, including predictions around
La Niña, struggling to forecast the timing and intensity of weather events.
What India needs is a paradigm shift in
how it approaches monsoon preparedness. State disaster management agencies must
go beyond piecemeal solutions and adopt comprehensive strategies that
incorporate climate models, early warning systems, and infrastructure
investment. With the specter of climate change looming larger every year, India
must act now to safeguard its people, economy, and environment from the growing
menace of the monsoon.