Due to some
reason or the other, my travel has been restricted since the past few weeks
which means I haven’t ventured out of the Hills ever since the Parliamentary
elections were declared. This in turn means that I am unaware of the election
atmosphere in other parts of the country other than what is happening in the
Darjeeling region.
What is
taking me by surprise is the total lack of enthusiasm and fervor that
Parliamentary elections generally generate in the Hills as in other places.
Elections are said to be the biggest festival in the celebration of any
democracy but forget festivity or any celebration, what appears, this time
round, is more a sign of resignation to the inevitable. The gusto with which
party supporters went about their campaigns, the zeal with which political
netas organized street corner meetings or public rallies, the high pitched
dramas that took place and the door to door campaigns (read empty promises)
that the Netas made, or whether it is interest of the general public, all
appears totally missing as of now, and the fact is that now hardly a week
remains before campaign ends. Whether this is an acceptance of the inescapable
fate that awaits the hills, or whether the voting public is fed up with the
lies and deceit that is shoved down their throats before every elections or
whether the public is just not interested in the election drama, is something I
really cannot pinpoint but the fact is that these elections do not really feel
like the festival of democracy that we generally are used to.
Of course the
John Travlota dance of comical proportions by a certain neta, the divorce of
another from the political party he was elected from, the yo-yo like
fluctuation of loyalty of a former undeclared king of the Hills, the
indecisiveness of the world largest party in declaring its candidate for the
Darjeeling parliamentary seat, the emergence of independent candidates like the
firebrand Bandana Rai and the alliance between the Congress (I) and CPI(M) does
provide a script for a potboiler film in the making but what remains to be seen
is that whether this lack of interest in the campaign period is a sign of
change or a sign of helplessness.
What
political observers feel is that it will not be as easy for Mr Raju Bista to
retain his seat as it was winning it in the year 2019. Mr Bista had won with a
mammoth margin of more than 4,13,000 votes, which was almost 60% of the total
votes cast, in the last elections which was no doubt spectacular by any
standard but then politics and circumstances were different in 2019. The Modi
wave was at its peak then, the BGPM party, which rules the GTA presently, was
not established at the grass root level then, the CPI(M) and the Congress(I)
were contesting separately while this time they have a candidate who is much
more acceptable and charismatic, the Bandana Rai and B P Bajgai factors were
not present in 2019, the deafening silence of the BJP’s manifesto on the issue
of Gorkhaland, the candidate of TMC-BGPM this time around appears stronger and
better connected in the Terai region of the Darjeeling Parliamentary
constituency and of course the general anti-incumbency factor against the
ruling BJP government, the bulging unemployment and soaring inflation will also
be a factor this time around.
To make any
assessment of the election results would not only be stupid of me and also
against the strict guidelines of the Election Commission but of course I can
make an analysis using the 2019 results as a guideline. Mr Bista polled close
to 7,50,000 votes in 2019 with the TMC/Binay Tamang/Anit Thapa candidate, Mr
Amar Rai, polling less than half that number. There are seven assembly
constituencies in the Darjeeling seat out of which four (Siliguri, Matigara,
Phansidewa and Chopra) in the Plains and 3 (Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong)
in the Hills. Approximately 60% votes are in the plains while the remaining 40%
in the Hills.
In elections
prior to 2019 what was observed as that the Hills generally voted en bloc for a
certain candidate while the votes from the plains were generally divided
between the various contesting candidates. This resulted inevitably in the
victory of the candidate that the Hills were supporting. The situation is
different now- I attribute this to the lack a charismatic and strong leader in
the Hills as also to the emergence of BJP with a base both in the Hill and
Plains segment of the Darjeeling Parliamentary constituency.
What was
interesting to note was that Mr Bista secured more votes than Mr Rai both in
the Hills as well as in the Plains. In fact after the emergence of GNLF in the
late 1980s this was the first time that the votes in the Hills were fragmented
and the result is there for all to see. Now the Hill votes are fragmented while
the Plains have started to vote en bloc.
In the 2019
elections Mr Bista secured more votes in six of the seven Assembly Segments of
the Darjeeling Lok Sabha Constituency and only in the Chopra Assembly segment
did the TMC candidate poll more votes. If a Plains-Hills comparative has to be
made then in the Plains, Mr. Bista secured about 4,05,000 votes while Mr. Amar
Rai secured about 2,36,500 votes while in the Hills the former secured about
3,44,100 votes while the latter managed just 1,03,500 votes. My reading is that
in the coming elections, Mr Bista will lose about 20% votes in the Hills while
in Plains it will lose about 15% of the votes, the reasons for which I have
already elaborated earlier in the article.
Readers can
do their own mathematics.
(Views are
personal. The author is the Editor of Himalayan Times, Kalimpong)