Over
the past decade, a significant shift has been observed in global migration
patterns, with Indians leading the charge in emigrating to countries such as
the US, Australia, Singapore, and Dubai. Among these destinations, Canada has
emerged as a particularly attractive location for Indian emigrants, especially
for Punjabis. In 2014, 38,364 Indians became permanent citizens of Canada, and
by 2022, this figure had surged to 118,095. However, as the number of Indians
relocating to Canada increased, relations between the two countries have
paradoxically hit an all-time low, prompting questions about the deeper reasons
behind this diplomatic standoff.
A
Legacy of Cooperation, Now Under Strain
Historically,
India and Canada have shared a cooperative relationship. Canada played a
crucial role in helping India build its nuclear capability, and the large
Indian diaspora in Canada helped forge strong people-to-people ties. Yet, the
growing rift between the two nations raises concerns about the root causes of
this diplomatic fallout, with Indian officials squarely blaming Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau for the deterioration.
India’s
frustration stems from the belief that Trudeau has allowed domestic political
needs to override national security concerns and sound foreign policy. In
pursuit of the Canadian Sikh vote, Trudeau is accused of pandering to the
Khalistani aspirations of a vocal segment of the Sikh diaspora. This political
strategy, in India's view, has gone beyond mere pandering—Indian officials
charge Trudeau's government with harboring criminals, drug traffickers, and
anti-India terrorists. This accusation escalated when Canadian authorities
accused Indian intelligence operatives and diplomats of being involved in the
assassination of Canadian citizens.
The
Spark That Ignited the Diplomatic Storm
The
diplomatic spat reached new heights when the US entered the fray, linking the
assassination of Canadian Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023 to an
alleged similar plot targeting US-based Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh
Pannun. The issue has sparked questions about the seriousness of pro-Khalistani
activism in North America, especially when viewed through the lens of India's
domestic security concerns. The Modi government’s frustration with what it
perceives as Western governments’ insensitivity to Indian security issues is
understandable, but the diplomatic blow-up has led to severe consequences.
Public
Accusations and the Breakdown of Discretion
Two
key questions arise from this standoff: Why did Canada and the US choose to go
public with such serious allegations, and where does the burden of proof fall?
On the first question, India's surprise is palpable. Given the relatively
amicable relations it shared with both countries, New Delhi expected these
matters to be handled with greater discretion. The Trudeau government’s
decision to air accusations of assassination plots on the floor of Parliament
appeared to be an attempt to sway public opinion, especially given Trudeau’s
precarious political standing at home.
For
India, the answer to why Trudeau went public is clear: domestic politics.
Trudeau’s Liberal Party has historically sought the support of the Sikh
diaspora, a politically influential group in Canada. With elections looming and
his popularity plummeting, Trudeau is seen as attempting to shore up his
political base by playing up to the Canadian Sikh community, some of whom
support the idea of a separate Khalistan.
However,
as with any diplomatic confrontation, domestic politics cuts both ways. Just as
India has accused Trudeau of exploiting foreign policy for electoral gain,
Pakistan has similarly accused Indian politicians of leveraging cross-border
terrorism claims for political capital. The optics of this confrontation have,
therefore, taken center stage, with each side accusing the other of political
opportunism.
The
Role of the Five Eyes and the West’s Involvement
What
complicates matters further is the role of the "Five Eyes"
intelligence alliance, which includes the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, and
New Zealand. India’s grievances against the Trudeau government now seem to be
part of a broader concern about the West’s treatment of India’s domestic
security concerns. It is difficult to dismiss the seriousness of the
allegations leveled by Canada and the US, which have implicated senior Indian
diplomats and intelligence officers.
The
inclusion of the US in this diplomatic spat signals a larger shift in India’s
relations with the Anglosphere. Traditionally, India has viewed countries like
the US, UK, and Canada as allies or partners in its development and its battle
against terrorism, particularly in the context of growing Chinese influence and
jihadi threats. However, the recent fallout has raised questions about whether
this partnership remains as robust as it once was.
Has
India’s View of the West Changed?
The
Modi government’s handling of these accusations and the rising tensions with
the West reflect a potential shift in India’s foreign policy outlook. Mohan
Bhagwat, the head of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), hinted at this
shift in his Vijayadasami speech, where he accused Western liberal democracies
of plotting to stage "colour revolutions" in India, similar to the
Arab Spring uprisings. This rhetoric points to a growing suspicion of the
West’s intentions towards India, a marked departure from the cooperative tone
of previous Indian administrations.
During
his tenure, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh frequently reassured the
public that "the world wants India to do well." Singh’s foreign
policy rested on the belief that liberal democracies, particularly in the West,
were supportive of India’s rise, both as a counterweight to authoritarian China
and as a bulwark against terrorism. However, the current atmosphere suggests
that the Modi government may no longer view the West in the same light.
L'affaire
Trudeau and the Global Context
The
strain between India and Canada is not happening in isolation. The conflict in
West Asia, coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine, presents further challenges
to India's relations with the West. The potential for increased US involvement
in the Middle East, in particular, raises concerns about the stability of oil
prices and the safety of Indian workers in the region. Any disruption in these
areas would have severe economic implications for India.
Taken
together, these global challenges suggest that the international environment
may no longer be as conducive to India's growth and development as it was a
decade ago. The frequent criticism of the West by members of the Modi
government, as well as figures within the BJP and RSS, points to a crisis of
confidence in India’s relationship with Western liberal democracies. L'affaire
Trudeau may be the most visible symptom of this broader malaise.
Diplomacy
and the Road Ahead
The
diplomatic spat between India and Canada is, on the surface, about the
assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and the broader issue of Khalistani
separatism. However, the deeper issues at play suggest a growing rift between
India and the West. The Modi government’s frustration with what it sees as the
West’s selective concern for its security challenges, coupled with Canada’s and
the US’s public airing of sensitive diplomatic accusations, signals a shift in
how India views its place in the global order.
As
both sides continue to trade accusations and expel diplomats, the road to
reconciliation seems difficult. The role of the Five Eyes alliance, Trudeau's
domestic political concerns, and India’s increasing wariness of Western
intentions all contribute to an environment of mistrust. Whether this
confrontation will lead to a long-term rupture in relations or a recalibration
of India’s ties with the West remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is
that diplomacy is more crucial than ever to prevent a complete breakdown in
relations and to safeguard the interests of both nations.
(Views
are personal. Email: dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)