The
14th Dalai Lama, whose spiritual name is Jetsun Jamphel Ngawang Lobsang Yeshe
Tenzin Gyatso, was born on July 6, 1935. Since 1959, he has been living in
India. As the highest spiritual leader and most revered head of Tibetan
Buddhism, his influence is profound. During my visit to Tibet, I noticed that
many ordinary Tibetans subtly wore medallions bearing his image. His pictures
were also a common sight in Tibetan-owned shops throughout Tibet, Yunnan, and
Qinghai. The Dalai Lama's religious influence also reaches into India's border
regions, including Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Ladakh.
Although
Tibet's political history is closely linked with China, it has traditionally
turned to India for moral and spiritual guidance. The region has long struggled
with China, and the current Dalai Lama is not the first to seek refuge in
India.
The
British actively pursued a policy to establish an independent Tibet as a buffer
against China. During the Younghusband expedition in Tibet, the Chinese Amban
(plenipotentiary) in Lhasa remained passive, leading to Tibet asserting its
independence. Following the establishment of the Republic of China with Sun Yat
Sen as President on January 1, 1912, the 13th Dalai Lama, in April of the same
year, declared an end to Tibet’s relationship with China, expelling the Amban
and all Chinese troops. However, after their civil war victory in 1949, the
Chinese Communists quickly reasserted control over Tibet, which had experienced
over four decades of independence by that time.
Since
then, India has tried to address the Tibet issue by accepting its annexation
into the People’s Republic of China. Over the years, the Chinese Communists
attempted to resolve the Tibet problem by trying to eradicate Tibetan
nationalism and Buddhism through Mao’s Communist policies, which ultimately
failed. This approach has since been replaced by gradual “Hanisation” and
extensive economic development. Although these methods have been only partially
successful, they have proven more effective for the Chinese than Mao’s
oppressive strategies.
Although
Tibet is currently relatively passive, it remains a volatile situation, and the
Chinese fear any incident that could ignite unrest. For India, the policy has
been only partially successful. Over 150,000 Tibetan refugees reside in India,
making the country, willingly or not, the center of a global Tibetan struggle
to regain their homeland. In essence, while the Tibet issue may seem dormant,
it is far from resolved, and India finds itself at the forefront of this
ongoing conflict.
At
the heart of this ongoing struggle is the Dalai Lama's international
prominence, symbolizing various ideals and values. His blend of New Age
spiritualism, ethics, ecological awareness, and political activism has garnered
him numerous influential and affluent Western followers of Tibetan Buddhism and
supporters of Tibet's cause. Today, McLeodganj, a small suburb of Dharamsala in
Himachal Pradesh, attracts numerous young Westerners in search of meaning and
purpose. It also draws notable figures such as Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of
the US House of Representatives, and Hollywood stars like Richard Gere and Uma
Thurman.
Both
China and India have concerns about the period following the Dalai Lama's
passing. Tibetans view the Dalai Lama as a living deity, yet he is mortal and,
at 88 years old, his time is limited. Currently, he manages to prevent Tibetan
nationalism from flaring up by enveloping it in the new age Buddhism he has
cultivated. However, once he is no longer there, the restrained embers of
Tibetan nationalism could potentially ignite into a full-blown conflagration.
The
leadership selected by the Tibetan exiles will face significant challenges. The
Chinese Communists are almost certain to impose their own chosen incarnation,
using all their resources to legitimize it. While this effort is unlikely to
succeed, it will undoubtedly complicate matters, making any future compromise
on the spiritual leadership of Tibetan Buddhists even more difficult.
Though
the spiritual leadership might be disputed, it is nearly certain that a new
generation of Tibetan exiles will assert their claim to the temporal leadership
of the Tibetan nationalist movement. If this claim is challenged by the regency
supporting the India-based incarnation, a competition for the allegiance of
young Tibetans is likely to ensue. This rivalry will lead to more assertive
stances as the factions vie for influence, often resulting in increased
militancy, with India at its center.
Alternatively,
a dual leadership may emerge among the Tibetan exiles: one focused on spiritual
guidance and another on militant pursuit of political objectives. The foresight
and wisdom of the Dalai Lama have paved the way for this dual leadership structure.
Key figures include Ugen Thinley, the Karmapa (currently in Germany), and Tempa
Tshering, the Sikyong (president) of the government-in-exile. Both leaders are
highly respected among Tibetan émigré communities and within Tibet itself.
From
an Indian standpoint, the emergence of an alternative religious leader in the
interim could prevent the fragmentation of the Tibetan Buddhist community. The
young Karmapa is a potential candidate for fulfilling this role.
Geographically
and ethnically, large parts of Ladakh are akin to the Tibetan Changthang
region, with a predominant Tibetan dialect spoken. On the opposite end, the
Tawang tract was under the temporal authority of the Dalai Lama in Lhasa until
India annexed it in the early 1950s.
It's
important to recognize that the border conflict with China essentially stems
from a border disagreement with Tibet. However, it's worth noting that if Tibet
were genuinely independent, it might not have been able to assert its claims in
the manner China did. China's assertion of claims to "Tawang and
surrounding areas" is primarily rooted in a declaration made by the
current Dalai Lama in the late 1940s. In a letter to the newly independent
Indian government, he formally laid claim to these territories.
China's
current assertiveness towards India is driven not just by territorial ambitions
but also by the impending demographic shift towards an aging population. Aware
of the need to capitalize on the present opportunity, China's periodic aggression
towards India is primarily motivated by considerations surrounding the
transition of Tibetan leadership, rather than mere land disputes.
(Views
are personal. Email: dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)