The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) projection of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall this year — 5% more than the historical average — has brought a welcome sense of relief. Coming on the heels of last year’s 8% surplus, this would mark the second consecutive year of bountiful rains. For a country where agriculture continues to be a primary livelihood source, the positive forecast holds promise for kharif sowing, pulses production, and food grain exports. However, while the skies may promise rain, the ground reality demands caution and critical preparedness.
Despite its increasing sophistication, monsoon forecasting remains riddled with uncertainties. The IMD’s two-stage forecasting model, with monthly updates, is susceptible to rapid shifts in weather patterns, especially given the unpredictable behaviour of oceanic parameters. Although the absence of El Niño and a reduced Eurasian snow cover provide favourable indicators this year, policymakers must remember that meteorological projections are probabilistic, not guarantees.
Moreover, a good monsoon, while beneficial for agriculture and inflation control, often brings with it a darker consequence: widespread flooding and landslides. In recent years, excessive rainfall has repeatedly exposed the country’s poor disaster management mechanisms, especially in ecologically fragile zones such as the Himalayan states, parts of the Northeast, and coastal regions. Rapid urbanisation, unregulated construction, and encroachment of floodplains have only compounded the risk. A surplus monsoon should, therefore, ring alarm bells as much as it brings relief.
This is particularly critical as 2025 has already registered the warmest January on record. Despite weak La Niña conditions — typically associated with cooler global temperatures — the persistent warming trend underscores the intensifying impacts of climate change. Extreme weather events, such as cloudbursts, flash floods, and prolonged dry spells between rainy phases, are becoming more frequent. These micro-variations can devastate both urban and rural systems if early warnings are not backed by robust response infrastructure.
At the policy level, monsoon preparedness must go beyond stockpiling disaster relief material. It requires immediate investment in early warning systems, drainage infrastructure, and community-based disaster risk reduction. States must update vulnerability maps and restrict construction in high-risk zones. The Centre, meanwhile, must ensure better coordination between IMD, the National Disaster Management Authority, and State Disaster Response Forces.
The temptation to view a promising monsoon as an all-clear signal must be resisted. If anything, above-normal rainfall makes it even more urgent to prepare for nature’s excesses. For a country whose economic and social stability is so closely tied to the monsoon, foresight and readiness must guide the agenda — not complacency.
