Of late Donald Trump has modified his foreign and domestic policies. “America for the Americans” is his slogan, consequently his priority is to restore the glory of the US no matter at whatever cost. He does not want to waste America's precious economic resources on some whimsical pursuits; as in Ukraine War so long, which is sapping the US wealth for no good purpose as well as its outcome so far is zero, and it’s an unequal fight, so the best way is to restore peace, which will be good both in the interest of Ukraine as well as Russia or at least Ukrainian people will breathe a sigh of relief if the war comes to a close. No war is good, the main brunt of any war is faced by the common men, and not by the government in power, not to talk about the death of innocent soldiers, who are ignored, though they have nothing to do with the war, and they are in the war because of their needs to fulfil the requirements of their families.
It is good news for India, because it is only India, which can act as buffer to stem the rising military might of China, which has only one objective that is to browbeat its weak neighbours, but this policy of China has not gone so far in favour of its citizens. Every economic progress of a country amounts to befriending every country; this increases its trade and strengthens its economy and prosperity. Therefore, China has tried to befriend India by finally coming to an agreement on the matter related to its borders. But its past history casts shadows on such assumptions. In 1962, its policy of brotherhood with India suddenly took a u-turn and China took advantage of India’s unpreparedness and unleashed an unexpected attack. Though it took a quick decision to declare cease fire in nine days under international pressure, it still captured India’s huge portion of land called Akshay Chin, and it is still retaining it without any repentance. By this attitude can we call China India’s friend, never! Or, it might have arrived at a border agreement to obtain India’s neutrality in the event of its adventures in the East. In politics, nobody is anybody’s friend. A doubt is sure to arise, whether China is eyeing Japan, since it has not yet forgotten its humiliation during the Second World War at the hands of the Japanese, Taiwan issue is secondary. Nothing can be said with any conviction; in politics today’s friend becomes tomorrow’s foe. But with India it knows, to display any belligerent attitude will amount to its discomfiture in the long run. India’s nuclear power always stands as a deterrent now against any enemy’s misadventure.
For the survival of all the littoral nations of the east coast the importance of the South China Sea is crucial. Therefore, I said, it is India, which can give a befitting challenge. The Indian Ocean is also pivotal for China as most of its imports pass through this water. With friendship with India, though in politics nobody is a friend; it can expect safe passage of its goods through the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it had all the while tried to befriend Sri Lanka, but it failed to entrap it with soft loans due to India's timely intervention. Nepal is gradually drifting towards China, which is not a good sign. See the Chinese foreign policy; it makes a semblance of resolving the border problems with India on one hand, whereas on the other it tries to segregate India by making an attempt to bring Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka in its fold. During the Doklam crisis it tried its hand on Bhutan by browbeating, but failed due to India's timely meddling.
Hopefully, India realises China's dubious designs. China knows it is not 1962 India, when it did not have any aircraft, which could cross the Himalayas, so all of a sudden it decided to befriend India. I think, Trump administration should also realise this, as well as the rising threat in the east. Trump would again try to befriend India, to keep it strong enough to be able to stand against China in case there is a threat to the US interests. There is another threat of North Korea, though which is not that significant for the US. Since Trump's priority is America for the Americans, and therefore, to safeguard its interests both internally and overseas will be a crucial factor in his list of priorities, but it is only our wild guess. Here again comes the Indian factor, so hopefully there will be levelled friendship between India and the US. As we know, during Biden's administration, the US were slowly drifting away from India, and realising this China quickly took advantage to placate India by coming to a truce on border issues. Moreover, China was losing its great market due to India's policy of self-sufficiency, which was also detested by the Chinese economic experts. Somehow or other it was desperately trying to befriend India, but it was not getting the right opportunity, which arrived with Canada's idiotic politically motivated foreign policy, and the US under Biden’s administration was also displaying its tacit support and that was not in the interests of India.
Every political analyst might have noted, taking advantage of this situation, Pakistan has openly started displaying its anti-India attitude at borders. Now, it is time for India to establish a balanced relation with China as well as the US, and at the same time continuing its good relations with Russia. Eighty five percent of India’s fuel requirement is fulfilled through its import, which is not at all good for its developing economy. It is a fact, it is trying to find a sustainable alternative fuel, but in this line the progress is not up to the mark. India needs to act fast. Though its friendship with Russia will stand in good stead, the future of fossil fuel is not very appreciable; its stock is constantly depleting everywhere. In coming years the European economy will invariably display a downward arrow. As soon as the stock of oil begins to squeeze in the Middle East countries, their population will begin to migrate to the European countries to find sustenance or those who cannot migrate a fatal domestic war among them will start, and Europe will feel its impact. A war between the migrants and the native Europeans is the ultimate outcome. A chaotic situation will arise in Europe. In the event of this chaos, China’s investment in Europe will suffer tremendous loss; its economy will face a serious jolt. The US will have its own problems to attend to, hence it will simply follow a policy of wait and watch or it will be involved in conflict with China to save Japan from China’s avaricious eyes. If in the meanwhile India resolves its fuel need, then it will emerge as the most powerful country in the world, but India has to look for some indigenous resources to solve this future crisis of fuel crunch. I don’t understand why the government is not thinking of developing the source of its biofuel. Its present policy is defective, it can think of some viable species like Pongamia Pinnata, which is India’s indigenous species. Crucial for India at present is to make a multi-pronged attack on this oil crisis, so that its dependence on imported fuel is minimised.
But my study says, in the coming days, the US and Russia will drift towards each other during Trump's administration to give a counter to the Chinese factor, which is trying to be a number one global power. But in the long run China will suffer tremendous impact on its economy due its open door policy of liberal loans to economically weak nations without assessing their loan repayment capacity. Everybody might have noted, it has already made substantial progress in developing a fifth generation fighter plane with Mach 5 speed and if it's aircraft achieved that speed, no country will be able to counter its air power, though the US is also trying in this line to counter China’s air potential. Even in sea power, China has more aircraft carriers than the US, which will prove a threat to the US military potential in the event of one on one combat in the high seas.
In the light of all this, Trump's rising to eminence once again is a good sign for India, but let us keep our fingers crossed till he assumes power as the President of the US.
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(Views are personal. Email: drpkchhetri7@gmail.com)
